Nigeria’s power grid operated at 36% capacity in January — NERC
Nigeria’s national power grid operated at just 36 percent of its installed capacity in January 2026, according to a January operational performance report released by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). The figures reveal deep-seated challenges in power generation, transmission and grid stability that continue to impede reliable electricity supply across the country, leaving industries, businesses and households grappling with frequent outages and under-performance in a sector that regulators acknowledge remains fragile. 
NERC’s operational factsheet shows that while Nigeria’s total installed generation capacity stood at 13,625 megawatts, only an average of 4,901 megawatts was available for dispatch into the grid during January, translating to a capacity utilisation factor of about 36 percent. This means nearly two-thirds of potential generation capacity remained unutilised throughout the month, compounding the country’s power supply woes and exposing systemic weaknesses that experts say must be addressed if any meaningful improvement is to be felt by consumers. 
Why the Grid Is Running Below Capacity
The shortfall between installed capacity and available generation is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria’s power sector. Structural challenges — including aging infrastructure, weak maintenance culture, inadequate gas supply for thermal plants and frequent transmission network faults — have long kept actual output well below potential. Even before the January report, similar concerns had been raised by energy analysts and previous performance data, showing that grid-connected plants often operated below 40 percent of capacity. 
Another underlying problem affecting grid performance is system frequency instability. NERC’s report noted that average grid frequencies for the month — both below and above the ideal operational range — frequently exceeded permissible limits, reflecting recurrent stress on the system and a narrow margin for operational resilience. When the grid operates outside safe frequency bounds, power plants may trip, and the likelihood of partial or total grid collapse rises. 
For many Nigerians, this weak grid performance translates into frequent blackouts and load shedding, forcing businesses to rely on costly generators and households to cope with inconsistent electricity. The national grid itself suffered multiple collapses late in 2025 and early 2026, including a widespread outage in late January that saw generation plunge to as low as a few dozen megawatts during peak asset failure moments. 
https://ogelenews.ng/nigerias-power-grid-operated-at-36-capacity-in-janu…
What “36% Capacity” Really Means
When NERC says the grid operated at 36 percent capacity, it means that of all the generation potential technically installed nationwide, only about a third was actually available to meet demand in January. Installed capacity reflects what plants could produce under ideal conditions, while the Plant Availability Factor (PAF) — the benchmark used by the regulator — reflects what was practically deliverable given real-world constraints. 
This disparity between potential and performance arises from multiple overlapping issues:
• Under-utilisation of plants: Many generation stations are offline for maintenance or due to operational breakdowns.
• Gas and fuel shortages: Thermal plants that rely on gas often operate sub-optimally when feedstock is irregular or insufficient.
• Transmission constraints: The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) struggles to evacuate available generation due to aged lines and frequent faults.
• System instability: Deviations in frequency can lead to plant trips and affect how power is shared across the grid. 
Implications for Consumers and the Economy
Running below capacity at a time when demand is growing has real consequences for Nigeria’s socio-economic outlook. When the grid can only reliably dispatch a fraction of installed capacity, homes and businesses are left with unreliable power, boosting the cost of doing business and increasing dependence on expensive diesel generators. This hurts productivity, investment and job creation. Analysts estimate that the lack of stable power supply costs Nigeria billions of dollars annually in lost productivity and inefficiencies. 
Manufacturers — particularly small and medium enterprises — have repeatedly cited power unreliability as a major constraint to growth. For firms operating in Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt and other commercial hubs, inconsistent grid power means ramps in operational costs, as generators become the default rather than the backup source of electricity. 
The grid’s weak performance also affects consumer confidence. Households are often without uninterrupted power for hours or days, causing food spoilage, hindering remote work and affecting quality of life in a country where a majority still desires grid power as the primary source of electricity.
Policy and Regulatory Responses
NERC regularly releases operational performance data as part of its regulatory mandate to monitor and ensure reliability in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI). The commission’s reports are meant to provide transparency and benchmark performance over time, guide policy actions and inform both government and private sector planning. 
The government and regulators have repeatedly pledged to address systemic issues through reforms that encourage investment, improve operational governance, and strengthen grid infrastructure. Initiatives such as the Presidential Power Initiative (PPI) and efforts to expand renewable energy integration are part of a long-term strategic framework aimed at boosting available capacity and enhancing stability. 
However, critics argue that progress has been too slow and that cross-sector coordination remains weak. Transmission and distribution bottlenecks persist, while underinvestment and maintenance backlogs continue to plague generation infrastructure. Without more decisive action, the gap between installed capacity and usable power is likely to remain a key constraint.
Nigeria’s power grid operated at 36% capacity in January — NERC
Looking Ahead
As Nigeria heads deeper into 2026, the question of whether the power sector can break out of its cycle of under-performance remains open. NERC’s January report — showing the grid operating at just 36 percent capacity — underscores the scale of that challenge. For ordinary Nigerians, the expectation is that regulators and policymakers prioritise tangible improvements that lead to stable, affordable electricity.
The grid’s performance in January — and the chronic under-utilisation it reflects — will remain a talking point in policy circles, energy sector debates, and public discourse as sectors from telecommunications to manufacturing press for a more reliable power supply. Only sustained investment, coordinated reform, and strengthened operational capability will alter the country’s longstanding electricity equation.
https://guardian.ng/energy/power-generation-shrinks-by-62-as-plants-operate-below-capacity
Nigeria’s power grid operated at 36% capacity in January — NERC
